FAQ & Methodology

How the indicator works, in plain terms.

What does this site actually measure?

The number of private/business jets airborne worldwide right now, compared to what is normal for this hour of the week. An unusual spike is the "signal".

Where does the flight data come from?

Live ADS-B broadcasts via the OpenSky Network. Aircraft are matched against a registry of known business-jet types (Gulfstreams, Globals, Citations, Falcons, and similar).

How are the alert levels decided?

We learn a baseline for each hour of the week from historical counts (mean and standard deviation). ALL CLEAR is normal; STIRRING is roughly 1+ standard deviation above; BUG OUT is 2+; APOCALYPSE is 3+. CALIBRATING shows until enough history exists.

Why does it say CALIBRATING?

The baseline needs data to be meaningful. Until enough samples accumulate (the first hours after launch), the indicator stays in CALIBRATING and won’t raise false alarms.

Is this a serious prediction tool?

No. It is entertainment built on real public data. A spike in jets can mean a holiday, a big sporting event, or a major conference — not necessarily the end of the world.